President Trump has long promised to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, vowing to prioritize American workers and industries. While this rhetoric resonates with many, the reality of achieving such a goal is far more complex. From inadequate infrastructure to a strong dollar and skilled labor shortages, the challenges facing U.S. manufacturing are deeply rooted and unlikely to be resolved by political promises alone.
Poor Infrastructure Hinders Manufacturing Growth
One of the biggest obstacles to revitalizing U.S. manufacturing is the country's aging and inadequate infrastructure. Efficient transportation of goods is critical for manufacturing competitiveness, yet the U.S. lags behind in this area. According to CNN, "1 in every 13 bridges in America is in 'poor' condition," and the White House reports that "1 in 5 miles of roads are in poor condition."[1][2] Additionally, the Mississippi River, a key freight transport route, is far less efficient than China's Yangtze River. Climate change-induced droughts and low water levels are expected to cut the cargo volume of the Mississippi River in half, further exacerbating logistical challenges. While port automation could reduce costs, it would also reduce the number of available jobs, undermining the goal of creating more manufacturing employment.
Logistics costs are a critical factor in manufacturing competitiveness. These deficiencies increase transportation costs, making it harder for U.S. manufacturers to compete globally. Both McKinsey and Peking University have highlighted that China's logistics costs are significantly lower than those of the United States.[3][4]
The Strong Dollar Hurts U.S. Exports
A strong U.S. dollar poses another significant challenge to manufacturing. In 2024, the dollar index hovered around 105, and even after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, it remained high. After Trump was re-elected, the dollar index even surged to 107.
A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand for American-made goods. This hurts U.S. manufacturers and makes it difficult for them to compete with companies from countries like Japan.
Skilled Labor Shortages and Rising Wages
The U.S. also faces a severe shortage of skilled workers, which further complicates efforts to bring manufacturing jobs back. Factory work is often physically demanding and lacks the work-life balance and flexibility that many American workers now prioritize. This drives wages up, increasing production costs and making U.S.-made goods less competitive globally. An article in Nature Communications shows that, as of 2021, Southern wages are 87–95% lower than Northern wages for work of equal skill.[5] This means that even with a 60% tariff, Southern products remain competitive. Countries like China are increasingly relying on industrial robots to reduce labor costs. For example, Xiaomi's factories are heavily automated, requiring fewer human workers but more highly trained engineers and technicians.[6] The U.S., however, struggles to produce enough trained engineers and technicians to meet demand.
The education system in the U.S. also plays a role in this shortage. Many students pursue careers in law or medicine rather than engineering, and even those who study STEM fields often lack practical skills. For instance, few U.S. math undergraduates are trained in advanced topics like Fourier transforms, which are essential for many engineering applications. Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, highlighted this issue by comparing the U.S. to Taiwan's TSMC, where physics PhDs are willing to work on factory floors. In the U.S., such highly educated workers are scarce and command much higher salaries, making it difficult to replicate this model. Trump's efforts to reduce government spending on education and research could worsen this problem.
Energy Costs Offer a Silver Lining
Despite these challenges, the U.S. does have some advantages. As one of the world's largest exporters of oil and natural gas, the U.S. enjoys relatively low energy costs compared to many other countries. Industrial electricity prices in the U.S. are lower than in Japan and Germany, though still higher than in China.[7] This energy advantage has already attracted some European firms to relocate to the U.S., particularly as energy prices in Europe have soared. However, this alone is unlikely to offset the broader challenges facing U.S. manufacturing.
While Trump's promise to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. is appealing, it is largely wishful thinking. Poor infrastructure, a strong dollar, skilled labor shortages, and global competition create significant barriers to achieving this goal. Although the U.S. has some advantages, such as lower energy costs, these are not enough to overcome the systemic issues that make U.S. manufacturing less competitive on the global stage. Revitalizing U.S. manufacturing will require more than political promises—it will demand significant investments in infrastructure, education, and workforce development, as well as a realistic understanding of the global economic landscape. Without these changes, the dream of bringing back manufacturing jobs will remain just that—a dream.